Volume 44, Issue 3 (9-2020)                   Research in Medicine 2020, 44(3): 498-502 | Back to browse issues page

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Garkaz O, mohammadpour M, Hamid Reza Khalkhali H R, Mehryar H R, Salari S. A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model. Research in Medicine. 2020; 44 (3) :498-502
URL: http://pejouhesh.sbmu.ac.ir/article-1-2048-en.html
Department of Public Health, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch, Tabriz, Iran , salarilak@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (1350 Views)
Precedent & Objective: Road accidents often cause severe damage to their victims and have a direct impact on community members. Iran has the highest rate of road accidents. The purpose of this study was to determine the model for predicting road deaths and injuries in West Azerbaijan province based on the data of the years (2010-2017) in a time series: Box-Jenkins model.
Materials and Methods: In this descriptive study, all deaths and injuries caused by traffic accidents were analyzed during 2010-2017. In order to determine the process of death and injury caused by traffic accidents in West Azerbaijan province, time series and Jenkins series models were used and the process of death and injury from traffic accidents was predicted in the province.
Results: In this study, it was found that the accidents trend was unstable in the study period and the best model to predict which one had the least value is the ARIMA model (2, 0, 1) with AIC = 78/38 As a suitable model for series fitting, due to the lack of seasonal trend of road accidents in West Azerbaijan province the trend is decreasing That is, in 2018 there were about 269 deaths which decreased by 7.4% compared to the year 2017.
Conclusion: According to the results, the trend of accidents for the coming year has also been declining, which is a good trend.
 
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Type of Study: Original | Subject: Epidemiology
Received: 2019/06/3 | Accepted: 2019/10/14 | Published: 2020/05/23

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