Volume 50, Issue 1 (5-2026)
Research in Medicine 2026, 50(1): 0-0 |
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Ethics code: IR.SBMU.RICH.REC.1400.048
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Ebrahimi-Seraj G, Khaleghnejad-Tabari A, Sarafi M. Changes in Pediatric Elective Surgery Volume before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic Onset: A Time- Series Analysis at Mofid Children's Hospital, Tehran. Research in Medicine 2026; 50 (1)
URL: http://pejouhesh.sbmu.ac.ir/article-1-3477-en.html
URL: http://pejouhesh.sbmu.ac.ir/article-1-3477-en.html
Pediatric Surgery Research Center, Child Health Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. & Pediatric Surgery Research Center, Mofid Children's Hospital, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , sarrafi.m@sbmu.ac.ir
Abstract: (13 Views)
Background and Aim: The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions in healthcare systems and affected the provision of elective surgeries. Given the importance of timely surgical interventions in children and the scarcity of evidence from developing countries, this study aimed to investigate changes in the frequency of pediatric elective surgeries at Mofid Children's Hospital in Tehran during the pandemic.
Methods: This was a retrospective time-series analysis of secondary hospital data. Data on all pediatric elective surgeries performed across 12 specialized departments at Mofid Children's Hospital, Tehran, were extracted from April 2019 to March 2021. After data cleaning, 3,848 eligible surgeries remained for analysis. Changes in surgery frequency were assessed using ITSA, STSA, and BSTS models. Statistical analyses were performed using t-tests, chi-square tests, and Fisher's exact test.
Results: The mean age of patients decreased significantly after the pandemic (P = 0.041). Except for the infectious diseases and gastroenterology departments, most departments experienced a marked decline in surgical volume. A significant reduction was observed among children (P = 0.019) and in the total population (P < 0.001), but not among neonates (P = 0.450). The BSTS model showed that the weekly average number of surgeries was 29% lower than predicted, corresponding to a cumulative reduction of 645 surgeries (P < 0.001). The greatest reductions were observed in the ENT (66%) and orthopedic (45%) departments. Recovery times in some departments ranged from 55 to 95 weeks; however, surgical volume among children and in dentistry had not returned to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the study period.
Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a significant reduction in pediatric elective surgery volume, particularly among children over one year of age and in the orthopedic and ENT departments. Recovery of surgical volume was slow in most departments and had not been achieved in some by the end of the study period. These findings underscore the need for effective strategies to manage surgical backlogs and enhance health system resilience.
Methods: This was a retrospective time-series analysis of secondary hospital data. Data on all pediatric elective surgeries performed across 12 specialized departments at Mofid Children's Hospital, Tehran, were extracted from April 2019 to March 2021. After data cleaning, 3,848 eligible surgeries remained for analysis. Changes in surgery frequency were assessed using ITSA, STSA, and BSTS models. Statistical analyses were performed using t-tests, chi-square tests, and Fisher's exact test.
Results: The mean age of patients decreased significantly after the pandemic (P = 0.041). Except for the infectious diseases and gastroenterology departments, most departments experienced a marked decline in surgical volume. A significant reduction was observed among children (P = 0.019) and in the total population (P < 0.001), but not among neonates (P = 0.450). The BSTS model showed that the weekly average number of surgeries was 29% lower than predicted, corresponding to a cumulative reduction of 645 surgeries (P < 0.001). The greatest reductions were observed in the ENT (66%) and orthopedic (45%) departments. Recovery times in some departments ranged from 55 to 95 weeks; however, surgical volume among children and in dentistry had not returned to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the study period.
Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a significant reduction in pediatric elective surgery volume, particularly among children over one year of age and in the orthopedic and ENT departments. Recovery of surgical volume was slow in most departments and had not been achieved in some by the end of the study period. These findings underscore the need for effective strategies to manage surgical backlogs and enhance health system resilience.
Type of Study: Original |
Subject:
Surgery
Received: 2025/07/12 | Accepted: 2026/09/1 | Published: 2026/10/17
Received: 2025/07/12 | Accepted: 2026/09/1 | Published: 2026/10/17
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